What the existing D2C business delivers on its own, per market: the plateau (median month Sep–May, excluding the November spike and December dip), the summer step between plateaus, and the Black Friday multiplier. Everything above this baseline must come from the initiative register below — each initiative gets a name, a lift and a leading indicator. Wholesale is excluded throughout (Regular orders only); Germany's 2025 step carries wholesale→D2C migration and is discounted by default. Assumptions are editable and can be saved to config. Chart dots are business events — hover anywhere on a chart to see the month's value and its events.